Will The Oscars Be Cancelled?

For many, sympathy for Hollywood screenwriters is a bit of a stretch. It brings to mind images of unfortunate corduroy-clad individuals tragically missing out on their mid-afternoon frappuccino. Say ‘picket line’ to someone in this country and they’ll talk to you about coal pits in Yorkshire. These people were genuinely impoverished. ‘Digital media royalties’ lacks a humanitarian edge somehow.

If awards ceremonies are little more than back-slapping self-congratulation though, it’s only right that a major industry labour crisis should bring them to a halt. It’s great to see the actors – who receive some of the royalties the writers covet – taking a stand alongside those that write their words. Not everyone is so pleased with the situation. Nikki Blonsky, nominated for Best Actress Globe thanks to Hairspray, was not impressed.  "It's kind of like you've got your dress, you're getting ready for the senior prom, you've got your hair and your makeup, and somebody goes, 'Prom's cancelled!'" she told MTV.

The cancellation of the five enormous Globes parties (The  HBO party, the Fox-Searchlight party, the Weinstein party, the Warner Bros-In-Style party, the NBC-Universal party) and the ceremony itself leaves an enormous black hole in the finances of advertisers and media outlets not to mention caterers. But the lack of a Globes shindig pales in comparison to the impact that an Oscars cancellation would cause.

The Oscars shape the movie year. From September onwards movies are pitched at the awards. The ceremony attracts $40 million plus viewers and touch on the region of $100 million in advertising revenue. This means that way more people will see a film winning its award than will actually see the film itself. From a producer’s perspective, this can effectively double or triple a film’s exposure for free.

From the Writer’s Guild Of America’s perspective, the Oscars must look like Everest. They’re little over a month away from pulling off the biggest coup in the history of the film industry. If they can use star power, or lack thereof, to their advantage as they did with the Globes, they could cause an enormous dent in the books of every major studio. They’d be able to return to the debating table and demand their share of their own creations’ earnings.

So what is the likelihood of the Oscars party being pooped? The WGA’s members usually write the script for the show itself, which isn’t a great start. Bruce Davis, the executive director of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, has said that the Oscars organizers are hopeful of reaching a deal with writers that would allow the highlight of awards season. "At this stage we are still making our plan as normal," Davis said.

That said, if the WGA chooses to picket the Oscars ceremony as they did the globes – and there’s every reason they will – there will undoubtedly be big names that will not cross the picket line. "A picket line is a whole new problem," Davis added to his statement in admission of this. And the prospect of a starless Oscars ceremony is far worse than the low-key press conference that replaced The Globes. If The Oscars are to be recovered, they’re unlikely to be at full strength when 24 February rolls round. A cancellation still looms.